Sellers Are Accepting Even Less | Jan. 2026 Housing Market Update - BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast Recap
Podcast: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
Published: 2026-01-23
Duration: 33 min
Summary
In the January 2026 housing market update, the podcast discusses an uptick in demand despite sluggish sales and inventory levels that remain relatively stable. The overall sentiment is that while the market is balanced, it may stay flat for the foreseeable future.
What Happened
The episode kicks off with host Dave providing an overview of the 2026 housing market, highlighting key factors like regional differences and new dynamics in the mortgage market. He notes that while many believe there are no buyers in the market, demand is actually up by about 10% compared to last year, as measured by mortgage purchase applications. This uptick is encouraging, suggesting that the market may be poised for more activity, even if prices remain high and the overall sales volume is well below historical norms.
Shifting focus to supply, Dave explains that inventory has increased by only 4% year-over-year, a modest rise that does not indicate a looming crash like the one seen in 2008. The episode clarifies that new listings have dropped to their lowest point in two years, causing sellers to hesitate in listing their properties. As a result, the market has become more balanced, with both supply and demand holding steady. This balance has led to a flat year in housing prices, with Redfin reporting a mere 0.5% year-over-year growth, reinforcing Dave's prediction of several flat years ahead unless major economic shifts occur.
Key Insights
- Demand for homes is up 10% compared to last year, signaling potential market recovery.
- Inventory levels are only up 4% year-over-year, indicating stability rather than a crash.
- New listings have hit a two-year low, causing sellers to be more conservative in their decisions.
- The housing market may remain flat for several years, barring unexpected economic events.
Key Questions Answered
What are the current trends in the housing market for January 2026?
The January 2026 housing market update indicates a notable increase in demand, with mortgage purchase applications up about 10% compared to the previous year. This is a positive sign for the market, suggesting a potential recovery in activity levels, even as overall sales volume remains below historical averages.
How is inventory impacting the housing market?
Inventory levels are a crucial aspect of the current housing market, with a year-over-year increase of only 4%. This modest increase is not alarming and does not suggest a crash, particularly since new listings have decreased significantly, leading to a balanced market.
What does the term 'lock-in effect' mean in real estate?
The lock-in effect refers to homeowners' reluctance to sell their properties due to favorable mortgage rates that they currently have. This has contributed to lower new listings, as many sellers feel they may not get a good price or favorable terms in the current buyer's market.
Why are sellers hesitant to list their properties now?
Sellers are hesitant to list their properties largely because they perceive the current market as unfavorable to them. With buyers having more power and the potential for lower sale prices, many sellers are choosing to wait rather than risk a poor sale.
What predictions were made about the housing market's future?
The podcast suggests that the housing market may remain flat for several years, based on current trends and economic conditions. Dave emphasizes that unless unforeseen events occur, the expectation is for a continued balanced market with little significant price movement.