The Great Stall is ON | March 2026 Housing Market Update - BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast Recap
Podcast: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
Published: 2026-03-20
Guests: Dave Meyer
What Happened
The housing market in 2026 is experiencing a phase termed 'the great stall,' characterized by a flattish, slow correction. National home prices have increased nominally by 0.5% to 1.5%, but when adjusted for inflation, they are effectively down. This slow growth is compounded by external factors such as the war in Iran, rising gas prices, and a weakening labor market.
Significant regional disparities exist, with 40% of U.S. markets, particularly on the West Coast and Southeast, observing price declines. In contrast, the Northeast and Northwest show some price growth, albeit at a slower pace. Home sales have picked up slightly from January's 3.9 million to 4 to 4.1 million annually in February, indicating a modest recovery.
Mortgage rates have decreased from 7.1% to about 6%, improving affordability. The payment income ratio stands at about 27%, a better figure compared to recent years. The average mortgage payment has dropped nearly $200 a month, with one in six markets reaching historical affordability levels.
Inventory growth is slowing, with Realtor.com reporting an 8% increase in active listings over the past year, whereas Redfin reports a 2% decrease. Insurance premiums have risen sharply by 6% over the last year, with the average premium now at $201 a month. This increase is significant, considering insurance costs have jumped 72% since December 2019.
Foreclosure starts have increased by 6.5% over the past year but remain 20% below pre-pandemic levels. There is a potential risk of a housing market crash, which Dave Meyer estimates at a 20-25% chance if unemployment rises substantially. Employment remains strong in trades, healthcare, and blue-collar jobs, suggesting a stable demand for workforce housing.
Dave Meyer discusses the potential for better deal flow as inventory rises and more motivated sellers appear. He advises focusing on B and C class buy and hold assets, as the top end of the market carries higher risks. The risk of a white-collar recession looms, which could impact housing demand further.
Oil price fluctuations from $65 to $100 and then to $80 a barrel could lead to inflation and affect mortgage rates. The Fundrise flagship fund offers investment in a diverse real estate portfolio, including 4,700 single-family rental homes and 3.3 million square feet of industrial facilities, starting with just $10.
Key Insights
- The housing market in 2026 is experiencing a slow correction, with nominal home prices up between 0.5% and 1.5%, but down when adjusted for inflation. This is partly due to external factors such as a war in Iran and rising gas prices impacting the economy.
- Regional disparities are evident, with 40% of U.S. markets experiencing price declines, particularly on the West Coast and in the Southeast. Conversely, some markets in the Northeast and Northwest are still seeing price growth, though at a decelerating rate.
- Mortgage rates have decreased from 7.1% to about 6%, improving affordability significantly. The average mortgage payment has fallen nearly $200 a month, and the payment income ratio is now more favorable at about 27%.
- Insurance premiums have risen by 6% over the past year, with the average cost now at $201 a month. This marks a 72% increase since December 2019, the highest proportional rise among real estate expenses.