2025 In Review, 2026 Predictions — With Reed Albergotti - Big Technology Podcast Recap

Podcast: Big Technology Podcast

Published: 2025-12-24

Duration: 43 min

Summary

The episode reflects on the significant developments in the tech industry during 2025 and sets the stage for anticipated changes in 2026, particularly in AI and geopolitics.

What Happened

In this episode, Reid Albergotti, the Semaphore Technology Editor, joins to recap the tumultuous year of 2025 and share predictions for 2026. Albergotti identifies the defining characteristic of 2025 as a year of scale, particularly in AI and infrastructure, suggesting that the sheer scale of operations and investments has dominated discussions. He notes that geopolitics has also played a significant role, making it a more prominent topic than in previous years.

Albergotti reflects on the evolution of AI over recent years, stating that while 2022 introduced the capabilities of conversational AI, 2023 felt stagnant as developers searched for direction. However, 2024 and 2025 marked a turning point where the applications of AI began to materialize. He expresses that 2026 will see a shift from the novelty of AI to the importance of product development, emphasizing that for consumers, the excitement will revolve around new products rather than new models. Albergotti warns of chaos in the industry, particularly for companies like Meta, as they grapple with the challenge of delivering meaningful products amidst internal discord.

Key Insights

Key Questions Answered

What were the major themes of 2025 in tech?

Reid Albergotti highlights that the major themes of 2025 revolved around significant scaling in AI and infrastructure. The conversation focused heavily on the enormous investments companies made in AI projects, as well as the infrastructure necessary to support these initiatives. He emphasizes that the scale of operations was a defining characteristic, with many companies pouring resources into AI, hoping for continued growth.

How did geopolitics influence the tech industry in 2025?

Albergotti notes that geopolitics played a much larger role in tech discussions during 2025 than in previous years. He reflects on how various global events and changes in administration affected the tech landscape, creating a more complex environment for companies to navigate. This shift in focus suggests that companies must not only consider market competition but also international relations in their strategies.

What does Reid Albergotti predict for AI in 2026?

Albergotti predicts that while AI will still be a major topic in 2026, the novelty surrounding it is starting to wear off. He believes the focus will shift toward the development of products rather than the introduction of new models. He states that consumers will likely be less excited about the capabilities of new AI models, as existing ones are deemed 'good enough,' prompting companies to innovate through new product offerings.

What challenges is Meta facing in its AI initiatives?

Albergotti discusses the turmoil within Meta regarding its AI initiatives, particularly the super intelligence lab. He mentions that there is ongoing friction between product teams and the super intelligence team, leading to chaos within the organization. He expresses concern over whether Meta can deliver a leading AI model and how internal dynamics may hinder progress in producing successful products.

What might the future hold for infrastructure in AI?

Reflecting on past predictions, Albergotti believes that the trend of scaling infrastructure will continue into 2026. He suggests that as companies develop larger frontier models, the training of these models will require even more substantial infrastructure, often spread across multiple locations. This growing need for infrastructure indicates that companies will need to adapt quickly to keep up with the demands of AI advancements.