Who will deal the final blow? Israel, Lebanon and Hizbullah - Economist Podcasts Recap

Podcast: Economist Podcasts

Published: 2026-03-20

Guests: Gareth Brown, Su Lin Wong, Anne Rowe

What Happened

An Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon's capital, took down an entire building, signifying a severe escalation in the conflict involving Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah. Israel, while focused on its long-standing adversary Iran, is also targeting Hezbollah, Iran's proxy group. Over 900 Lebanese have been killed, and a million have fled south.

Israel's Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has issued a severe warning against Hezbollah, threatening to devastate their strongholds. Sami Jamail, a prominent Lebanese Christian leader, emphasizes that Hezbollah is a creation of Iran and questions who should dismantle the group and at what cost.

The Lebanese public is expressing anger towards Hezbollah, blaming them for dragging Lebanon into conflict. Hezbollah's previous role as a provider of social services in the South has faltered due to financial issues stemming from Iran's troubles. Now, they face scrutiny for their involvement in this regional conflict.

Israel has amassed over 100,000 troops on the southern border, with the possibility of a ground offensive looming. The Lebanese government, for the first time, has openly talked about disarming Hezbollah, a previously taboo subject due to the group's power and influence.

The Lebanese army, although one of the few functioning cross-sectarian institutions, is weakened by the country's financial crisis, raising doubts about its ability to confront Hezbollah. The displacement of over a million people, predominantly Shia, is exacerbating sectarian tensions in Lebanon.

Diplomatic efforts by the US and France are underway to broker a pause in the fighting, giving Lebanon a chance to address Hezbollah's influence. However, the potential for an Israeli invasion and occupation looms large if a resolution isn't found. Sami Jamail believes that a reckoning is inevitable, and Lebanon's leadership can no longer delay addressing these issues.

Key Insights

• Israel's recent military actions in Lebanon have led to over 900 casualties and displaced a million people, primarily targeting Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran.
• Hezbollah's status as a state within a state in Lebanon is under threat due to financial struggles and public discontent, which has grown as a result of their involvement in the conflict.
• The Lebanese government is, for the first time, openly discussing disarming Hezbollah, a significant shift from past reluctance due to the group's military and political power.
• Over a million Shia have been displaced within Lebanon, moving into non-Shia areas and intensifying sectarian tensions, reminiscent of the country's past civil strife.