Future of Business: Moderna’s Founder on Innovation That Breaks Through - HBR IdeaCast Recap

Podcast: HBR IdeaCast

Published: 2025-12-04

Duration: 29 min

Summary

Noubar Afeyan emphasizes the importance of both breakthrough and incremental innovation, arguing that companies should envision future states while addressing present needs to maintain a competitive advantage.

What Happened

In this episode, Alison Beard interviews Noubar Afeyan, the founder and CEO of Flagship Pioneering and co-founder of Moderna. Afeyan shares his insights on innovation, discussing the distinction between continuous and discontinuous innovation. He believes that while many focus on adjacent improvements, true breakthroughs often arise unexpectedly and are harder to predict. He advocates for a dual approach that combines both types of innovation, encouraging companies to think from the future back to the present.

Afeyan discusses the necessity of having a dedicated group within organizations that is motivated differently than traditional R&D teams to pursue unpredictable innovations. He warns against the commoditization that can occur from an overemphasis on incremental improvements. By leveraging uncertainty rather than just risk, organizations can explore multiple avenues that may lead to groundbreaking discoveries. This requires patience and a willingness to invest in various options until they yield results.

The conversation also touches on the application of AI in innovation processes. Afeyan refers to the concept of 'polyintelligence,' describing how AI can augment human creativity and lead to novel ideas. He recounts how Flagship has been using AI since 2018 to generate new concepts and evaluate their potential, allowing for a more expansive exploration of possibilities. This blend of human and machine intelligence is positioned as a critical component of fostering future breakthroughs.

Key Insights

• Breakthrough innovation often emerges unexpectedly and is harder to predict compared to incremental changes.
• Companies should balance their focus on both continuous improvement and disruptive innovation to avoid commoditization.
• A dedicated team with a different motivation is crucial for pursuing unpredictable innovations within organizations.
• AI can significantly enhance the innovation process by generating a vast array of new ideas and augmenting human creativity.

Key Questions Answered

What is breakthrough innovation according to Noubar Afeyan?

Afeyan defines breakthrough innovation as a significant leap that is not easily connected to previous work, distinguishing it from incremental, continuous innovation. He emphasizes that although breakthrough innovations are harder to predict, they can create substantial value and are often categorized as unexpected successes.

How should companies balance continuous and disruptive innovation?

Afeyan suggests that companies need to think about both types of innovation and how they complement each other. He argues that while continuous innovation focuses on present needs, breakthrough innovation should be envisioned from the future back to the present. This dual approach allows companies to remain competitive and avoid the pitfalls of commoditization.

What advice does Afeyan give regarding organizational structure for innovation?

He advises against having everyone in an organization look for breakthroughs, as it can be disruptive and unsustainable. Instead, he recommends creating a specialized group that is differently motivated and rewarded than typical R&D teams, allowing them to pursue unpredictable innovations without the constraints of traditional expectations.

How does Afeyan describe the role of AI in the innovation process?

Afeyan describes AI as a form of augmented intelligence that can enhance human creativity and generate a multitude of new ideas. He has implemented AI in Flagship since 2018, utilizing it to evaluate concepts and explore novel spaces, thereby expanding the possibilities for innovation beyond what humans could conceive alone.

What is the significance of exploring uncertainty in innovation?

Afeyan highlights that innovation is more about navigating uncertainty than just managing known risks. He believes that organizations should pursue multiple avenues and persist through uncertainty to uncover new value pools, as true innovation often lies outside the realm of predictable outcomes.