An act of self-harm: Trump’s latest war might be his undoing - The Intelligence from The Economist Recap

Podcast: The Intelligence from The Economist

Published: 2026-03-19

Guests: Robert Guest

What Happened

Donald Trump's recent military engagement in Iran has been characterized by many as a self-inflicted wound that could severely damage his presidency. The conflict has led to significant global economic disruption, particularly in the oil and gas sectors, contradicting Trump's claims of a successful military victory. Voters have become increasingly aware of these inconsistencies, as rising oil prices are visibly affecting their daily lives.

The war has also weakened Trump's ability to leverage international alliances. His past disparagements of NATO and threats against member countries have resulted in a lack of support as he seeks assistance to manage the conflict. This has exposed the limits of his influence and has made it more challenging for him to dictate terms as he previously did.

Trump's hold over the Republican Party is also at risk. While a core group remains loyal, his broken promises, such as the vow to avoid foreign wars and control inflation, have alienated swing voters and younger demographics. This shift is causing panic among Republican officeholders, who fear substantial losses in the upcoming midterm elections.

Robert Guest, Deputy Editor at The Economist, outlines how Trump's political superpowers - his control over reality, use of leverage, and party dominion - are eroding. Guest suggests that Trump's tendency to act without admitting mistakes could lead to further impulsive actions, both domestically and internationally, as he attempts to regain control.

In Turkey, political dynamics are being influenced by external factors as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan navigates the geopolitical landscape. The trial of opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu, accused of corruption and terrorism, is seen as politically motivated to prevent his candidacy in the 2028 elections. Erdoğan's focus on foreign policy aims to distract from domestic issues, leveraging Turkey's strategic importance to the West amid regional conflicts.

Turkey's geopolitical role is crucial, controlling key maritime routes and acting as a mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts. This has allowed Erdoğan to maintain Western alliances despite democratic backsliding at home. The international focus on Turkey's strategic value overshadows internal political suppression, leaving opposition figures like İmamoğlu in precarious positions.

Key Insights

• Trump's military engagement in Iran has disrupted global gas supplies, contradicting his claims of a decisive victory. The conflict has visibly impacted oil prices, making it clear to voters that his foreign policy is worsening economic conditions.
• The war has exposed the limits of Trump's leverage over international allies. His previous threats and disparagements have resulted in a lack of support from NATO countries, undermining his ability to manage the conflict effectively.
• Trump's broken promises on foreign wars and inflation control have alienated swing voters, contributing to Republican fears of losing the upcoming midterms. This shift in voter sentiment indicates a weakening of his political influence.
• Turkey's strategic geopolitical role has shielded President Erdoğan from Western criticism, allowing him to focus on foreign policy to distract from domestic issues. This has enabled continued political suppression within Turkey, impacting opposition figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu.