Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge? - The Intelligence from The Economist Recap

Podcast: The Intelligence from The Economist

Published: 2026-03-13

Duration: 25 min

Guests: Anshal Pfeffer, Josh Roberts

Summary

The episode examines the growing differences in war aims between the United States and Israel as they jointly target Iran, with Israel focusing on regime change and the U.S. prioritizing control over oil resources.

What Happened

The episode begins with a discussion on the recent press conference by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who asserts that Israel, alongside America, is united in its fight against Iran and Hezbollah. However, the episode highlights emerging differences in the war aims of the two nations, with Israel focusing on regime change and the U.S. on controlling Iranian oil flow.

Anshal Pfeffer, the Israel correspondent, notes that while publicly there seems to be unity, behind the scenes, American officials are more concerned with maintaining a functioning Iranian regime that serves American interests, especially regarding oil exports to China. This divergence could lead to disagreements on how to end the conflict.

The episode also explores the potential internal political consequences for Netanyahu if the war ends without achieving regime change in Iran, as this could be seen as a failure amid an impending election. This is particularly pressing given the recent history of conflict with Iran and the perception of victory touted just months ago.

The ongoing military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah are also covered. Israel has launched an extensive air campaign, resulting in significant casualties, as it aims to weaken Hezbollah's military capabilities. The possibility of a broader ground offensive is discussed, but no decision has been made yet.

The episode then turns to the impact of the conflict on global markets, particularly oil prices. Josh Roberts, the capital markets correspondent, explains that traditional investment advice to buy quality stocks may not hold true, as low-quality stocks, like those in energy, have performed better amid rising oil prices.

Roberts further explains that during times of uncertainty, investors are gravitating towards 'crap' stocks because they are more likely to offer immediate returns, whereas high-quality stocks with earnings expected in the distant future are seen as more speculative and risky.

Finally, the episode concludes with an obituary for Philippe Gaulier, a master clown known for his unorthodox teaching methods. His emphasis on finding one's unique absurdity and his disdain for being boring are highlighted, alongside anecdotes from those who trained under him.

Key Insights

• Israel's apparent unity with the U.S. against Iran masks a deeper strategic divide: while Israel seeks regime change, the U.S. prioritizes maintaining Iranian oil flow to China, highlighting a potential conflict of interest if the war evolves.
• The future of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career may hinge on the outcome of the conflict with Iran, as a failure to achieve regime change before elections could be perceived as a significant shortfall after previous claims of victory.
• In the midst of rising oil prices, investors are defying traditional wisdom by favoring low-quality 'crap' stocks over high-quality ones, as they offer quicker returns in uncertain markets, according to capital markets correspondent Josh Roberts.
• Philippe Gaulier, a master clown known for his unique method of teaching, believed in embracing one's absurdity and avoiding the mundane; his legacy continues to influence performers who value originality over convention.

Key Questions Answered

What are the differences in war aims between the US and Israel according to The Intelligence podcast?

The US is focused on controlling Iranian oil flow to maintain a functioning regime that aligns with its interests, while Israel aims for regime change in Iran, hoping to set the ground for Iranian protesters to overthrow the regime.

How has the Iran conflict affected global investment strategies as discussed on The Intelligence?

Traditional advice to invest in high-quality stocks is being challenged, as low-quality stocks, particularly in the energy sector, have outperformed due to rising oil prices linked to the conflict.

What internal challenges does Netanyahu face if the Iran war ends inconclusively?

Netanyahu could face significant political backlash amid an upcoming election if the war with Iran ends without achieving regime change, as this would contradict previous claims of victory over Iran.