Who will deal the final blow? Israel, Lebanon and Hizbullah - The Intelligence from The Economist Recap

Podcast: The Intelligence from The Economist

Published: 2026-03-20

Guests: Gareth Brown, Sami Jamail

What Happened

In Beirut, Lebanon's capital, an Israeli strike recently took down an entire building, highlighting the ongoing conflict involving Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah. More than 900 Lebanese have been killed, and a million have fled the south. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich made stark promises against Hezbollah, describing a scenario where parts of Beirut would resemble Khan Yunis in Gaza.

Gareth Brown, The Economist's Middle East correspondent, explains that there is significant anger in Lebanon against Hezbollah for dragging the country into war. Despite initial backlash, a rally-around-the-flag phenomenon has emerged due to widespread displacement and destruction. Many Lebanese are tired of both war and Hezbollah's influence, as the group's support from Iran has dwindled, weakening its hold.

The conflict feels different this time, with Israel potentially expanding its operations, possibly even considering a ground offensive. Israel has stationed over 100,000 troops on the southern border, and its past occupation of Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 serves as a reminder of the potential consequences.

The Lebanese government has taken a stronger stance against Hezbollah, previously a taboo subject, with the recent shift in the Overton window allowing open discussions on disarmament. However, the Lebanese army's capacity to act is questionable due to financial constraints, despite political willingness to reclaim sovereignty.

International diplomats from the US and France are seeking a diplomatic pause to give Lebanon a chance to address Hezbollah's influence. Concerns grow over sectarian tensions and displacement, with over a million Shia displaced into non-Shia areas, threatening to reopen old wounds from the civil war.

Sami Jamail, a prominent Christian leader in Lebanon, suggests that Iran's fate could significantly impact Hezbollah's future. If Iran collapses, Hezbollah might be forced to negotiate, but if Iran survives, Lebanon could face prolonged instability. The Lebanese government is acting with urgency, recognizing that failure to do so could lead to disaster, occupation, and invasion.

Key Insights

• The Israeli airstrike in Beirut resulted in over 900 Lebanese deaths and displaced a million more, intensifying anger towards Hezbollah within Lebanon.
• Israel's military presence at the Lebanese border includes over 100,000 troops, recalling its previous occupation from 1982 to 2000 and raising fears of a new prolonged invasion.
• Hezbollah's weakened state is attributed to Iran's embroilment in war and financial difficulties, reducing its ability to provide services and maintain its influence in Lebanon.
• The Lebanese government is now openly addressing Hezbollah's disarmament, a previously taboo topic, reflecting a significant shift in political willingness despite resource constraints.