Here's Why The Iran War Is Prompting A Safe Haven Rethink - Odd Lots Recap

Podcast: Odd Lots

Published: 2026-03-21

Guests: Joe Weisenthal

What Happened

Investors are reconsidering what constitutes a safe haven asset amid the turmoil caused by the Iran war. Traditionally, safe havens like US treasuries, the dollar, the Swiss franc, and gold have been relied upon during crises. However, recent geopolitical tensions have shifted these perceptions, as seen during the trade tariffs turmoil under President Trump.

Joe Weisenthal explains that safe haven assets are not strictly correlated to growth or risk assets. For instance, gold is considered a classic safe haven due to its historical monetary value. Similarly, US treasuries are seen as stable due to guaranteed payments by the US government. However, the performance of these assets can vary based on the specific nature of the crisis.

During the Trump trade tariffs, the dollar weakened as the US appeared less attractive to investors. This was not due to a crisis but rather economic management concerns making the dollar less appealing. In contrast, the Iran war has made the dollar attractive again due to its safe haven properties as investors seek to preserve value amid uncertainty.

The pricing of treasuries is influenced by inflation, which has been a concern due to the Iran war. Wars often lead to increased fiscal expenditures and resource strains, potentially driving inflation. Despite potential losses against inflation, some investors may still opt for treasuries for the security of guaranteed payments.

Gold's performance has been mixed, despite generally rallying during periods of high inflation and geopolitical tensions. The war in Iran has not spurred a similar rally, possibly because investors need liquid assets like dollars to cover immediate expenses.

Joe Weisenthal notes that physical attributes of gold, such as the difficulty in moving it, may also contribute to its decreased appeal as a safe haven amid the Iran conflict. This issue is amplified by logistical challenges in war-torn regions, making immediate liquidity a concern for investors.

Key Insights

• Safe haven assets such as US treasuries, the dollar, and gold are sought after during crises for their perceived stability. However, their performance can vary significantly depending on the nature and context of the crisis.
• During the Trump administration's trade tariffs, the US dollar weakened due to concerns over economic management, making it a less attractive safe haven compared to other periods.
• Treasuries are influenced by inflation rates, and during the Iran war, inflation fears have risen due to potential increased fiscal expenditures and resource strains. Despite this, some investors may accept potential losses for the security of guaranteed payments.
• Gold has historically been a stable asset during unstable times, but its physical limitations and the need for liquid assets like the dollar in times of crisis can affect its appeal as a safe haven.