How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further - Odd Lots Recap

Podcast: Odd Lots

Published: 2026-03-19

Duration: 48 min

Guests: Jeff Kazen, Mike Rolfson

What Happened

Jeff Kazen and Mike Rolfson from Agris Academy explain the current challenges facing American farmers, particularly those stemming from the geopolitical tensions in Iran. They note that fertilizer prices are surging, which is a critical issue given that it coincides with the spring planting season when demand is high. Despite some grain prices rising, it's unclear if these increases will offset the costs farmers are incurring, causing a squeeze on their margins.

The episode highlights how American farmers have been squeezed by inflationary pressures on land and equipment costs while their output prices have remained stagnant since 2016. Jeff Kazen points out that land prices have doubled, and equipment costs have risen by 40%, making it difficult for farmers to maintain profitability.

Mike Rolfson discusses the impact of trade barriers and how they are reshaping global agricultural markets. He mentions that China's trade policies have led to increased investment in Brazilian agriculture, providing China with alternative suppliers and reducing their reliance on American soybeans.

The discussion also covers the systemic inefficiencies in the supply chain, particularly the oligopolistic nature of the seed, fertilizer, and livestock processing industries. This concentration of suppliers limits competition and can drive up input costs for farmers, further exacerbating their financial pressures.

The conversation touches on the importance of crop insurance in stabilizing farm income. Federal crop insurance, which is highly subsidized, acts as a safety net, allowing farmers to manage the financial risks associated with farming in an unpredictable climate.

Jeff Kazen mentions that despite the challenges, the American agricultural sector has seen significant productivity gains, which have helped farmers survive amidst tight margins. Technological adoption has lowered unit costs, allowing farms to remain viable even as input costs rise.

The episode concludes with advice for farmers to adopt a disciplined risk management approach. Jeff Kazen and Mike Rolfson emphasize the importance of becoming risk managers rather than speculators, focusing on maintaining margins and utilizing storage effectively to navigate the volatile market conditions.

Key Insights

• Fertilizer prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions in Iran, coinciding with the critical spring planting season and adding to farmers' financial pressures.
• Since 2016, American farmers have faced stagnant output prices while experiencing significant inflation in land and equipment costs, with land prices doubling and equipment up by 40%.
• Trade barriers have encouraged China to invest in Brazilian agriculture, reducing its reliance on American soybeans and reshaping global agricultural supply chains.
• The oligopolistic nature of the agricultural supply chain, with few suppliers in seeds, fertilizers, and livestock processing, limits competition and exacerbates input cost pressures for farmers.