War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles - Odd Lots Recap

Podcast: Odd Lots

Published: 2026-03-16

Duration: 44 min

Guests: Tom Karako

Summary

The episode examines how the war in Iran is depleting American missile stockpiles, focusing on the logistics, economics, and strategic implications of missile defense and supply chains.

What Happened

The episode kicks off with a discussion about the war in Iran and its impact on American missile stockpiles. Hosts Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway highlight the economic effects and the logistical challenges posed by the conflict. They introduce Tom Karako, Senior Fellow at CSIS, who provides insights into missile defense and supply chain issues.

Karako explains the complexities of missile procurement and the strategic importance of having a robust missile defense system. He emphasizes that while missile defense won't win a war, its absence could lead to a loss, as seen in the case of Ukraine. The discussion highlights the massive expenditure of missiles by the U.S. and the need for replenishment.

The episode delves into the types of missiles being used in the conflict, including offensive strikes and defensive interceptors. Karako notes the scary volume of missile activity and the potential risks of running out of interceptors, which could jeopardize global strategic positions, especially in the Pacific regarding China.

The conversation shifts to the challenges of ramping up missile production, including political constraints, physical resources, and workforce limitations. Karako mentions the current initiatives to increase production, such as leveraging private capital and investing in new technologies.

Karako also discusses the strategic dilemma of reallocating missile defense systems from one region to another, like moving systems from South Korea to the Middle East, which could weaken deterrents against other potential threats like China.

The episode covers the cost dynamics of missiles versus cheaper drones, pointing out that while drones are inexpensive, their effectiveness is limited compared to more sophisticated missiles. Karako stresses that the overall cost of operations, including logistics and personnel, often outweighs the cost of munitions.

Finally, the episode touches on the political and military implications of the ongoing conflict and the importance of a political resolution to truly end hostilities. Karako warns that without significant changes, the current depletion of missile stockpiles could embolden adversaries like China.

Key Insights

• The U.S. is experiencing a significant depletion of its missile stockpiles due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, raising concerns about maintaining strategic military positions globally, particularly in the Pacific region against China.
• Missile production faces challenges such as political constraints, limited physical resources, and workforce shortages, prompting initiatives to increase production through private capital and new technologies.
• Relocating missile defense systems from regions like South Korea to the Middle East could weaken deterrent capabilities against other potential threats, impacting global military strategy.
• Despite being cheaper, drones are less effective than sophisticated missiles, and the overall cost of military operations, including logistics and personnel, often surpasses the cost of munitions.