The Next Inflation Wave Is Already Here - Prof G Markets Recap

Podcast: Prof G Markets

Published: 2026-03-23

Guests: Josh DeMaro

What Happened

The episode begins with an alarming overview of the U.S. national debt, which has reached a historic $39 trillion. Scott Galloway and his co-hosts highlight that the Iran war, which started 23 days ago, has significantly impacted global commodity prices. Fertilizer prices have surged by 25%, while gas and diesel prices have spiked by over 30%, directly affecting Americans who are now spending $300 million more on gasoline daily compared to last month.

Stagflation concerns are on the rise as real GDP growth has declined from 1.4% to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Producer Price Index (PPI) has also seen a substantial increase, with the core PPI jumping 3.9%, marking the largest rise in three years. The episode delves into the soaring costs of essential commodities like ammonia, which has seen a year-on-year price increase of 92% globally and 41% in the U.S. since March.

The episode touches on the market's surprisingly muted reaction to these economic challenges, with the S&P only 5% off its all-time high. Despite the economic turbulence, Mark Zandi estimates a 49% chance of a recession occurring. In the face of these disruptions, there is a potential for heightened interest in alternative energy sources, with Texas leading the charge by generating 60% of its electricity from wind power and 18% from solar at a specific moment.

In the tech sector, Vanta is highlighted for automating compliance processes across over 35 security and privacy frameworks, including SOC2, ISO 27001, and HIPAA. Meanwhile, OpenAI faces criticism for lacking focus due to multiple ongoing projects. The discussion points out that OpenAI is refocusing on its core business in response to competition from Anthropic in the enterprise market.

Turning to the corporate world, Meta's substantial $80 billion investment into the metaverse platform Horizon Worlds is scrutinized as the project is being shut down. This move is seen as a costly distraction that did not address real consumer needs. In contrast, AWS is cited as a successful example of leveraging existing infrastructure to solve real-world problems, now comprising more than half of Amazon's operating profit.

Disney's new CEO, Josh DeMaro, takes the helm during a challenging period marked by declining linear assets and external risks. Scott Galloway suggests a potential merger between Disney and Netflix as a strategic move to enhance shareholder value. He also proposes that Disney could adopt a loyalty program model to increase its value by bundling Disney properties and park access.

The episode also covers shifting media consumption habits, with only 31% of young sports fans watching full-length matches, while 74% rely on social media for sports content. The Oscars' viewership has fallen by 9%, with a 14% drop among 18 to 49-year-olds, reflecting a broader trend of content being consumed via clips on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube rather than live broadcasts.

Finally, the episode examines the public's discomfort with AI-generated content, as two-thirds of Americans disapprove of online videos created by AI and three-quarters are uneasy with fully AI-generated creative content. OpenAI's Sora app is expected to shut down due to declining downloads and unsustainable operational costs that reach $5 billion annually, yet generate less than half a million dollars per month.

Key Insights