The Real Risk Goes Beyond War | Macro Mondays: March 23, 2026 w/ Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Real Vision: Finance & Investing Podcast Recap
Published:
What Happened
The Trump presidency has injected significant volatility into the markets, largely due to his unpredictable decision-making. This unpredictability is causing investors to recalibrate their risk assessments in the face of shifting political landscapes.
The ongoing war with Iran is a central focus, impacting global markets. Despite indirect talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, there has been little progress. Iran's refusal to respond to US overtures, as reported by Iranian state TV, adds to the uncertainty.
Iran maintains strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passageway, which serves as a significant leverage point in the conflict. Although the US has met some objectives, it has yet to dismantle Iran's nuclear program.
The Federal Reserve's recent meeting resulted in no changes to interest rates, but inflation expectations have increased. This decision suggests a cautious approach by the Fed amidst the Iran conflict, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions.
US money markets indicate signs of reduced leverage, hinting at potential risk-taking if geopolitical tensions ease. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is currently above its target, with expectations of reducing its balance to stabilize at $800 billion by the end of April.
Real Vision has launched 'The Arena', a trade idea competition with a total prize pool of $25,000 to encourage innovative trading strategies. This initiative aims to stimulate engagement and provide participants with practical trading experience.
Plus500 remains a versatile platform for trading futures and other instruments, offering an intuitive mobile interface. With a minimum deposit of $100 and over 20 years of experience, it provides an unlimited risk-free demo account for practice.
Listener curiosity about Scott Besant's appearance on Meet the Press was addressed, with speculation on his future endeavors. Real Vision also continues to offer its Macro meets Micro show, providing pro users with a model portfolio and investment tips.
Key Insights
- The Trump presidency is causing market volatility, complicating investor risk assessment due to unpredictable policy changes.
- Iran's strategic hold on the Strait of Hormuz remains a pivotal factor in the ongoing conflict, affecting global oil supplies.
- The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amidst rising inflation expectations reflects cautious economic management.
- The US Treasury's use of the TGA could mitigate leverage concerns, with a planned balance adjustment towards $800 billion by April's end.