Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win - The Big Picture Recap

Podcast: The Big Picture

Published: 2026-03-12

Duration: 1 hr 52 min

Summary

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins finalize their Oscar predictions for all 24 categories at the 98th Academy Awards, focusing on a two-film race between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners.' They explore the unpredictable acting categories and the possibility of historic wins.

What Happened

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins dive deep into their final Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards, analyzing all 24 categories in detail. They identify 'One Battle After Another' as the most dominant frontrunner, winning major precursors like PGA, DGA, and BAFTA, and predict it will win Best Picture, Best Director, and several other key categories. However, they also acknowledge the growing momentum behind 'Sinners,' particularly in acting categories.

The acting races, especially Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, are described as wide open. They debate Michael B. Jordan's SAG win for 'Sinners' and whether it signals a late surge for the film. Sean leans toward a potential upset by Leonardo DiCaprio or Wagner Moura but ultimately sticks with Jordan as his prediction. Amanda picks Wunmi Mosaku for Supporting Actress, while Sean opts for Amy Madigan, reflecting the category's unpredictability.

The hosts explore the historical significance of Paul Thomas Anderson potentially winning his first Oscar for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. They highlight the unprecedented possibility of 'One Battle After Another' sweeping five major categories, a feat not achieved since 'Schindler's List.'

They also discuss the new Best Casting award, predicting a win for Francine Maisler ('Sinners') but emphasizing the innovative work of Gabriel Dominguez ('The Secret Agent'). The race between precedent and vibes is a recurring theme, with Sean and Amanda balancing historical data with the emotional resonance of the films.

In the craft categories, 'Frankenstein' emerges as a dominant force, expected to win Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling. They praise the technical achievements of 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners,' particularly in Editing and Cinematography, with a nod to Autumn Durald Arkapaw's groundbreaking work on 'Sinners.'

Sean and Amanda reflect on the broader implications of this year's Oscars, noting how the Academy's evolving membership has made outcomes harder to predict. They express excitement for the show and gratitude to listeners who have followed their award-season coverage.

The episode ends with a call to action for viewers to join their live Instagram session before the Oscars and their Netflix recap immediately after, signaling a packed and thrilling night for film fans.

Key Insights

• Paul Thomas Anderson, despite being one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of his generation, has never won an Oscar. This year, he could break that streak with 'One Battle After Another,' potentially taking both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.
• 'One Battle After Another' might achieve something no film has done since 'Schindler's List'—sweeping five major categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor. Its dominance across PGA, DGA, and BAFTA suggests a rare level of industry consensus.
• The new Best Casting award adds a fresh layer to the Oscars, with Francine Maisler ('Sinners') as the favorite. However, Gabriel Dominguez ('The Secret Agent') is challenging traditional casting norms, turning this into one of the night's most unpredictable races.
• Michael B. Jordan's SAG win for 'Sinners' positions him as the Best Actor frontrunner, but Sean Fennessey suspects Leonardo DiCaprio or Wagner Moura could pull off an upset. This category's uncertainty underscores how late-season momentum can flip predictions.

Key Questions Answered

What are Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins' predictions for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?

Sean and Amanda both predict 'One Battle After Another' will win Best Picture, citing its dominance across major precursors like PGA, DGA, and BAFTA, as well as its widespread critical acclaim.

Why is Michael B. Jordan a frontrunner for Best Actor in 'Sinners'?

Michael B. Jordan's SAG win for 'Sinners' positioned him as a frontrunner, with his dual performance in the film showcasing his range and charisma. The timing of his SAG win during Oscar voting and his strong campaign presence boosted his chances.

How significant is Paul Thomas Anderson's potential win at the 2026 Oscars?

If Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for 'One Battle After Another,' it would mark his first Oscar wins after being nominated 11 times. This would cement his legacy as one of the most influential directors of his generation.