Who Is Winning the War in Iran? - The Daily Recap

Podcast: The Daily

Published: 2026-03-19

Duration: 38 min

Guests: Eric Schmidt

What Happened

The United States and Israel have severely weakened Iran's military capabilities by targeting key leaders and military sites, yet Iran remains resilient and continues to retaliate. The U.S. has attacked over 7,800 targets, including missile launchers and naval vessels, rendering the Iranian Navy largely ineffective. Despite the loss of top leaders, Iran has adapted by using asymmetric warfare tactics, such as deploying mines and speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz, which has significantly disrupted international commerce.

The Pentagon initially planned for a four to six-week campaign and believes it is progressing well, having destroyed much of Iran's military infrastructure. However, Iran's decentralized defense strategy allows it to continue operations despite significant losses. The conflict has resulted in over 2,100 deaths, including more than 1,300 civilians in Iran and 13 American service members.

Iran's strategy includes targeting economic vulnerabilities, such as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments. Iran has utilized mines, missiles, and speedboats to hit nearly 20 tankers, causing significant disruptions. This has prompted the U.S. to consider military escorts for commercial vessels, a risky operation due to potential attacks.

President Trump faces a complex situation with limited options, ranging from military escalation to diplomatic negotiations. The U.S. has considered seizing Karj Island, a key Iranian oil hub, to pressure Iran economically. However, this would entail significant risks, including potential damage to oil infrastructure and the need to defend the island from Iranian attacks.

Another option involves addressing Iran's nuclear capabilities. The U.S. has previously bombed nuclear sites, and there is consideration of further action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This could involve bombing or extracting enriched uranium from Iranian facilities, both highly risky operations.

President Trump has floated the idea of declaring victory and withdrawing, citing the successful degradation of Iran's military capabilities. However, Iran's continued ability to disrupt global stability and its potential activation of terror cells remain concerns. Israel's differing objectives add complexity, as it may not agree with a U.S. withdrawal.

The initial goal of regime change in Iran appears unlikely, as the regime has shown resilience despite significant military losses. Analysts suggest that the best outcome may be a weakened Iranian state rather than a change in government. The U.S. must decide on its strategic goals and whether to continue military engagement or seek an exit strategy.

Key Insights