A trucker, a farmer, and an entrepreneur walk into a global supply shock - The Indicator from Planet Money Recap

Podcast: The Indicator from Planet Money

Published: 2026-03-17

Duration: 9 min

Guests: Forrest Atkinson, Mark Mueller, Albert Dewar

What Happened

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has resulted in significant financial impacts worldwide, manifesting in higher gas prices and delayed flights. This situation is creating a supply shock that is affecting various sectors reliant on fossil fuels, such as transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing.

Forrest Atkinson, a truck driver, is dealing with increased diesel costs, which have risen by about a third since the onset of the war. While her employer currently covers fuel expenses, there is a possibility of restrictions on where she can refuel if prices continue to climb. Forrest considers herself fortunate to be employed rather than owning her truck, given the unpredictability in fuel prices and freight patterns.

Mark Mueller, an Iowa corn farmer, faces skyrocketing fertilizer costs due to the global nature of the fertilizer market. Nitrogen fertilizer, primarily made from natural gas, has become more expensive as natural gas prices rise, particularly affecting Mark as he prepares for the upcoming planting season. He has limited options, as switching to less fertilizer-dependent crops like soybeans could introduce other economic challenges.

Albert Dewar, CEO of UBQ Materials, is in a position to benefit from the crisis as his company's plastic alternative becomes more competitive. The material, made from waste products, provides a cheaper substitute to traditional oil-based plastics. Despite not yet seeing a surge in demand, the rising cost of polyethylene makes his product more appealing to potential clients.

The episode highlights the lack of short-term solutions for many businesses affected by the supply shock. While substitution can mitigate some costs, such as switching from plastic to UBQ, the long-term economic impact depends on the duration of the conflict and the adaptability of businesses. The situation underscores the importance of human ingenuity in navigating economic challenges.

Key Insights

• Forrest Atkinson, a truck driver, is currently shielded from direct fuel costs by her employer, but rising diesel prices could lead to refueling restrictions to manage expenses.
• Mark Mueller, an Iowa corn farmer, is facing increased costs for nitrogen fertilizer due to its dependence on natural gas, which is significantly affected by the conflict in the Persian Gulf.
• Albert Dewar's company, UBQ Materials, offers a plastic alternative that is gaining competitiveness as traditional plastic prices increase due to the war. However, the company is still in the early stages of scaling up.
• The global supply shock leaves businesses with few short-term options, pushing them to consider alternatives like substituting crops or materials, while long-term impacts will depend on the conflict's duration and business adaptability.