Is Cuba on the Brink of Collapse? - The Journal. Recap
Podcast: The Journal.
Published: 2026-03-19
Duration: 1087
Guests: Vera Bergengruen
What Happened
At night across Cuba, the sound of banging pots and pans echoes as frustrated citizens protest against the government amidst widespread blackouts. The country's infrastructure, already fragile, has been pushed to the brink due to a complete halt in oil imports over the past three months, paralyzing public services and causing a severe economic crisis.
Cuba's reliance on oil imports from Venezuela came to a halt following a U.S.-led military operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. This action, along with an executive order from President Trump threatening tariffs on nations selling oil to Cuba, has isolated the island further, exacerbating its economic woes.
The Trump administration's blockade aims for regime change in Cuba, seeking to dismantle the communist government. However, while the administration considers the Cuban regime fragile, the government remains in control, and widespread civic movements or opposition have not yet materialized.
The blockade has severely impacted Cuba's economy, with airlines unable to refuel, resulting in a collapse in tourism, a major revenue source. As blackouts intensify, essential services like public transportation, education, and healthcare have been disrupted, leading to widespread unrest and protests.
Vera Bergengruen reports from Cuba, highlighting the growing desperation among the population. The crisis has resulted in reduced work weeks, school closures, and skyrocketing food prices, pushing citizens to a breaking point.
Despite these challenges, the Cuban government has shown some willingness to negotiate, releasing prisoners and opening discussions with Washington. However, U.S. sanctions remain a significant barrier to progress, with hardliners demanding a full dismantling of Cuba's political institutions before any negotiations can proceed.
The future of Cuba remains uncertain, with the potential for more protests as citizens struggle with basic survival. The Trump administration's vision of a post-communist Cuba is far from realization, as the lack of civic infrastructure poses questions about what would replace the current regime.
Key Insights
- Cuba's economic crisis has intensified due to a U.S. oil blockade, leading to widespread power outages and disrupted public services.
- The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of Nicolas Maduro, was a key factor in halting Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba.
- Despite the Trump administration's pressure, the Cuban government remains in control, and there is little sign of an organized opposition capable of regime change.
- The Cuban government has made some concessions, such as prisoner releases, but U.S. sanctions and hardliner demands prevent significant progress in negotiations.