513. Inside Iran: The Country Trump Cannot Control? (Question Time) - The Rest Is Politics Recap

Podcast: The Rest Is Politics

Published: 2026-03-19

Guests: Karim Sajadpour

What Happened

Karim Sajadpour, a prominent analyst on Iran, provides a detailed insight into the complexities of Iran's nationalistic yet polarized society. Despite widespread opposition against the regime, estimated at 80-85% of the population, a committed minority maintains its rule. This nationalism often results in resistance to foreign intervention, complicating external efforts to influence change.

The recent rise of Mojtaba Khamenei as Ayatollah is a direct consequence of Donald Trump's policies and Israeli threats. His leadership, which was solidified after his father's assassination, represents a continuation of the regime's rigid stance. Economically, Iran is struggling under heavy sanctions and is viewed unfavorably by its neighbors, leading to potential scenarios of retrenchment, implosion, or adaptation.

Iran's strategic use of missiles and drones against Gulf countries is aimed at disrupting oil markets and influencing American public opinion. Over 2,000 such attacks on the UAE demonstrate Iran's deep ideological opposition to Western-aligned regional stability plans, like UAE's Vision 2030. These actions have reinforced the necessity of American military presence in the Persian Gulf to safeguard global economic stability.

The podcast draws parallels between Iran and the Soviet Union, suggesting the possibility of a collapse similar to that of the USSR. Karim Sajadpour argues that Iran's inability to reform its identity over 47 years and the significant gap between the government and its people make such a scenario plausible. A containment strategy, akin to the one used during the Cold War, could be effective.

Iran's energy sector remains underutilized, despite holding the second-largest proven natural gas reserves globally. The majority of its oil exports, approximately 90%, are directed to China, indicating a largely transactional relationship. Russia benefits from the ongoing instability in Iran, as it increases the energy risk premium and limits Iran's competition in gas markets.

Karim Sajadpour points out that the lack of diplomatic relations since 1979 has left the US with limited expertise on Iran, complicating effective policymaking. The JCPOA was an attempt at containment, focusing on nuclear ambitions but failing to address broader regional and internal issues. Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas heavily rely on Iranian resources, adding another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.

Iran's diverse population, with Persians making up about 50% and significant minorities like Azeris, Arabs, Baluchis, and Kurds, adds to the internal challenges faced by the regime. Iranian Kurds, accounting for about 10% of the population, have faced disproportionate repression. Western values of democracy and human rights could align with the Iranian public's interests, potentially bridging the gap between the regime and its people.

Military intervention is deemed ineffective for regime change, as the Iranian regime has shown resilience against external pressures. The podcast critiques both the left's overestimation of the regime's ability to change and the right's overestimation of its fragility, suggesting a balanced approach is necessary for understanding and addressing the Iranian situation.

Key Insights