Inside Iran: The Country Trump Cannot Control? (Question Time) - The Rest Is Politics Recap

Podcast: The Rest Is Politics

Published: 2026-03-19

Duration: 53 min

Guests: Karim Sajadpour

What Happened

Karim Sajadpour, an Iranian expert, joined Rory Stewart and Alistair Campbell to provide insights into the current situation in Iran. Sajadpour explained that Iran is one of the most nationalistic populations on Earth, feeling proud of its ancient history, which can lead to different political directions. He suggested that around 80-85% of the Iranian population is opposed to the regime, but the regime maintains control through a devoted minority willing to use force.

The discussion also covered the challenges faced by Iran's new Ayatollah, who emerged after his father's assassination. Sajadpour noted that the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is inexperienced and under significant pressure due to recent attacks and family losses. There is skepticism about his ability to lead long-term, and questions remain about the potential for the regime's implosion following political decapitation.

The episode explored Iran's military actions in the Gulf, particularly its strategy to destabilize Gulf economies and drive up oil prices. Sajadpour explained that Iran's actions have been partly ideological, reflecting deep antipathy towards countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He argued that the regime benefits from regional instability while those countries need stability for their economic models.

The hosts discussed the possibility of parallels between Iran and the Soviet Union, considering scenarios where Iran might face internal collapse similar to the USSR. Sajadpour emphasized the importance of Iranian nationalism as a potential unifying force against the regime, contrasting with the ideological rigidity of the Islamic Republic.

Sajadpour also analyzed the Trump administration's approach to Iran, noting that the war was a choice rather than a necessity. He criticized the lack of a coherent strategy and predicted that the conflict might not resolve soon. The regime's ability to disrupt the global economy presents a dilemma for the US and its allies.

Finally, the conversation touched on the role of international players like Russia and China. Sajadpour highlighted the transactional nature of Iran's relationship with China, primarily centered on energy, while noting Russia's interest in maintaining Iran as a disruptive force in the region. He suggested that Western values could play a role in eventually fostering change in Iran.

Key Insights

• Iran's population is highly nationalistic, with about 80-85% opposing the current regime. However, the regime retains power through a small, devoted minority willing to use force.
• The new Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, faces significant challenges, including inexperience and pressure following his father's assassination. His leadership is under scrutiny amid ongoing internal and external conflicts.
• Iran's military actions in the Gulf aim to destabilize regional economies and drive up oil prices, reflecting both strategic and ideological motives. Iran benefits from regional instability, contrasting with the Gulf states' need for stability.
• The US-Iran conflict may not resolve soon, as the regime's ability to disrupt global economic stability poses a significant challenge. The lack of a coherent strategy from the US administration complicates potential resolutions.