Betting on the Iran war - Today, Explained Recap

Podcast: Today, Explained

Published: 2026-03-17

Duration: 26 min

Guests: Emmanuel Fabian, Kate Nibbs, Hannah Aaron Lang

What Happened

Emmanuel Fabian, a reporter for the Times of Israel, was perplexed by the intense feedback he received on a small article about a missile explosion near Beit Shemesh. The feedback turned threatening when he refused to change the description of the event from a missile to a missile fragment. Fabian discovered that individuals had bet large sums of money on the outcome of bombings in Israel via prediction markets like Polymarket.

Sean Rameswaram introduces the concept of prediction markets, platforms where one can gamble on future outcomes, such as elections or cultural events. Recently, these markets have extended to geopolitical events, allowing people to bet on military conflicts and outcomes in the Middle East. Despite their legal ambiguity, these markets attract individuals seeking to profit from war-related predictions.

Kate Nibbs from Wired discusses how prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, enable war profiteering by letting users bet on events like troop movements or changes in leadership. While Calci has stricter rules that prohibit bets on assassinations, Polymarket operates with fewer restrictions due to its location outside of the United States.

Concerns have been raised about insider trading on these platforms, with suspicious accounts making lucrative bets right before significant geopolitical events. Although these actions resemble insider trading, the legal framework for prediction markets is murky, complicating regulatory efforts.

The moral implications of war betting are troubling, with critics questioning the ethics of profiting from human suffering. The CEO of Polymarket argues that these markets could potentially save lives by providing more accurate information, but this rationale is controversial and fraught with ethical challenges.

Hannah Aaron Lang from The Wall Street Journal explains that prediction markets are primarily used by men, but efforts are being made to attract more women. Calci is attempting to diversify its user base by creating events and content that appeal to a broader audience, aiming to mirror the U.S. population's gender balance within a decade.

Key Insights

• Prediction markets like Polymarket allow betting on geopolitical events, raising ethical concerns about war profiteering. These markets operate with fewer legal restrictions outside the U.S., attracting users who want to profit from military conflicts.
• Suspicious trading patterns on these platforms suggest potential insider trading, as some accounts make large profits with timely bets on geopolitical events. The regulatory framework for prediction markets is unclear, making it difficult to address these concerns.
• Efforts to attract more women to prediction markets are underway, with platforms like Calci hosting targeted events and content. The goal is to diversify the user base, which is currently male-dominated, and align it with the U.S. population's gender distribution.
• The argument for prediction markets' societal benefits is contentious, as some claim they provide accurate information that could save lives. Critics, however, highlight the moral issues of profiting from human suffering and question the ethics of such markets.